Risk assessment
Article 7
1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3
The Secretary of State shall make a national risk assessment (‘national risk assessment’) of all relevant risks affecting the security of gas supply in the United Kingdom. ...
4
The risk assessment referred to in paragraph 3 of this Article shall be carried out, as relevant, by:
a
using the standards specified in Articles 5 and 6. The risk assessment shall describe the calculation of the N – 1 formula at national level .... The risk assessment shall also include the assumptions used ... and the data necessary for such calculation. The calculation of the N – 1 formula at national level shall be accompanied by a simulation of disruption of the single largest gas infrastructure using hydraulic modelling for the national territory as well as by a calculation of the N – 1 formula considering the level of gas in storages at 30 % and 100 % of the maximum working volume;
b
taking into account all relevant national and transnational circumstances, in particular market size, network configuration, actual flows, including outflows from the transmission systems of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, the possibility of physical gas flows in both directions including the potential need for consequent reinforcement of the transmission system, the presence of production and storage and the role of gas in the energy mixes, in particular with respect to district heating and electricity generation and for the operation of industries, and safety and gas quality considerations;
c
running various scenarios of exceptionally high demand for gas and disruption of gas supply, taking into account the history, probability, season, frequency and duration of their occurrence and assessing their likely consequences, such as:
1. disruption of the infrastructure relevant to the security of gas supply, in particular transmission infrastructure, storages or LNG terminals, including the largest gas infrastructure identified for the calculation of N – 1 formula; and
2. disruption of supplies from outside the United Kingdom, as well as, where appropriate, geopolitical risks;
d. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
e
taking into account risks relating to the control of infrastructure relevant to the security of gas supply to the extent that they may involve, inter alia, risks of underinvestment, undermining diversification, misuse of existing infrastructure or an infringement of assimilated law;
f
taking into account the maximal interconnection capacity of each border entry and exit point and various filling levels for storage.
5
The national risk assessment shall be prepared in accordance with the ... template set out in Annex ... V. If necessary, the Secretary of State may include additional information. ...
5A
The Secretary of State may, by regulations, amend the template set out in Annex V in order to reflect the experience gained in the application of this Regulation and to reduce administrative burdens.
6
Natural gas undertakings , the holder of a licence under section 7AA of the Gas Act 1986, industrial gas customers, the relevant organisations representing the interests of household and industrial gas customers , the Northern Ireland department and the regulatory authority, must cooperate with the Secretary of State and provide the Secretary of State upon request with all necessary information for the national risk assessment.
7
... The risk assessments must be updated by 1st October 2022 and every four years thereafter unless circumstances warrant more frequent updates. The risk assessments shall take account of progress made in investments needed to cope with the infrastructure standard defined in Article 5 and ... difficulties encountered in the implementation of new alternative solutions. They shall also build on the experience acquired through the simulation of the emergency plans contained in Article 10(3).
Art. 7(5A) inserted (31.12.2020) by The Electricity and Gas (Powers to Make Subordinate Legislation) (Amendment) (EU Exit) Regulations 2018 (S.I. 2018/1286), regs. 1(2)(b), 23(b); 2020 c. 1, Sch. 5 para. 1(1)
Words in Art. 7(5) substituted (31.12.2020) by The Gas (Security of Supply and Network Codes) (Amendment) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019 (S.I. 2019/531), reg. 1(2), Sch. 1 para. 7(5)(a)(i); 2020 c. 1, Sch. 5 para. 1(1)
Words in Art. 7(5) omitted (31.12.2020) by virtue of The Gas (Security of Supply and Network Codes) (Amendment) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019 (S.I. 2019/531), reg. 1(2), Sch. 1 para. 7(5)(a)(ii); 2020 c. 1, Sch. 5 para. 1(1)
Words in Art. 7(5) omitted (31.12.2020) by virtue of The Gas (Security of Supply and Network Codes) (Amendment) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019 (S.I. 2019/531), reg. 1(2), Sch. 1 para. 7(5)(a)(iii); 2020 c. 1, Sch. 5 para. 1(1)
Words in Art. 7(5) substituted (31.12.2020) by The Gas (Security of Supply and Network Codes) (Amendment) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019 (S.I. 2019/531), reg. 1(2), Sch. 1 para. 7(5)(b); 2020 c. 1, Sch. 5 para. 1(1)
Words in Art. 7(5) omitted (31.12.2020) by virtue of The Electricity and Gas (Powers to Make Subordinate Legislation) (Amendment) (EU Exit) Regulations 2018 (S.I. 2018/1286), regs. 1(2)(b), 23(a); 2020 c. 1, Sch. 5 para. 1(1)
Art. 7(1)(2) omitted (31.12.2020) by virtue of The Gas (Security of Supply and Network Codes) (Amendment) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019 (S.I. 2019/531), reg. 1(2), Sch. 1 para. 7(2); 2020 c. 1, Sch. 5 para. 1(1)
Words in Art. 7(3) substituted (31.12.2020) by The Gas (Security of Supply and Network Codes) (Amendment) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019 (S.I. 2019/531), reg. 1(2), Sch. 1 para. 7(3)(a)(i); 2020 c. 1, Sch. 5 para. 1(1)
Words in Art. 7(3) inserted (31.12.2020) by The Gas (Security of Supply and Network Codes) (Amendment) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019 (S.I. 2019/531), reg. 1(2), Sch. 1 para. 7(3)(a)(ii); 2020 c. 1, Sch. 5 para. 1(1)
Words in Art. 7(3) omitted (31.12.2020) by virtue of The Gas (Security of Supply and Network Codes) (Amendment) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019 (S.I. 2019/531), reg. 1(2), Sch. 1 para. 7(3)(b); 2020 c. 1, Sch. 5 para. 1(1)
Words in Art. 7(4) substituted (31.12.2020) by The Gas (Security of Supply and Network Codes) (Amendment) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019 (S.I. 2019/531), reg. 1(2), Sch. 1 para. 7(4)(a)(i); 2020 c. 1, Sch. 5 para. 1(1)
Words in Art. 7(4) substituted (31.12.2020) by The Gas (Security of Supply and Network Codes) (Amendment) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019 (S.I. 2019/531), reg. 1(2), Sch. 1 para. 7(4)(a)(ii); 2020 c. 1, Sch. 5 para. 1(1)
Words in Art. 7(4)(a) omitted (31.12.2020) by virtue of The Gas (Security of Supply and Network Codes) (Amendment) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019 (S.I. 2019/531), reg. 1(2), Sch. 1 para. 7(4)(b)(i); 2020 c. 1, Sch. 5 para. 1(1)
Words in Art. 7(4)(a) omitted (31.12.2020) by virtue of The Gas (Security of Supply and Network Codes) (Amendment) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019 (S.I. 2019/531), reg. 1(2), Sch. 1 para. 7(4)(b)(ii); 2020 c. 1, Sch. 5 para. 1(1)
Words in Art. 7(4)(b) substituted (31.12.2020) by The Gas (Security of Supply and Network Codes) (Amendment) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019 (S.I. 2019/531), reg. 1(2), Sch. 1 para. 7(4)(c); 2020 c. 1, Sch. 5 para. 1(1)
Art. 7(4)(d) omitted (31.12.2020) by virtue of The Gas (Security of Supply and Network Codes) (Amendment) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019 (S.I. 2019/531), reg. 1(2), Sch. 1 para. 7(4)(e); 2020 c. 1, Sch. 5 para. 1(1)
Words in Art. 7(4)(e) substituted (31.12.2020) by The Gas (Security of Supply and Network Codes) (Amendment) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019 (S.I. 2019/531), reg. 1(2), Sch. 1 para. 7(4)(f); 2020 c. 1, Sch. 5 para. 1(1)
Words in Art. 7(6) substituted (31.12.2020) by The Gas (Security of Supply and Network Codes) (Amendment) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019 (S.I. 2019/531), reg. 1(2), Sch. 1 para. 7(6); 2020 c. 1, Sch. 5 para. 1(1)
Words in Art. 7(7) omitted (31.12.2020) by virtue of The Gas (Security of Supply and Network Codes) (Amendment) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019 (S.I. 2019/531), reg. 1(2), Sch. 1 para. 7(7)(a); 2020 c. 1, Sch. 5 para. 1(1)
Words in Art. 7(7) substituted (31.12.2020) by The Gas (Security of Supply and Network Codes) (Amendment) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019 (S.I. 2019/531), reg. 1(2), Sch. 1 para. 7(7)(b); 2020 c. 1, Sch. 5 para. 1(1)
Words in Art. 7(7) omitted (31.12.2020) by virtue of The Gas (Security of Supply and Network Codes) (Amendment) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019 (S.I. 2019/531), reg. 1(2), Sch. 1 para. 7(7)(c); 2020 c. 1, Sch. 5 para. 1(1)
Words in Art. 7(4)(c) substituted (31.12.2020) by The Gas (Security of Supply and Network Codes) (Amendment) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019 (S.I. 2019/531), reg. 1(2), Sch. 1 para. 7(4)(d); 2020 c. 1, Sch. 5 para. 1(1)
Words in Art. 7(6) inserted (1.10.2024) by The Energy Act 2023 (Consequential Amendments) Regulations 2024 (S.I. 2024/706), regs. 1(1), 45(a); S.I. 2024/957, reg. 2(a)
Word in Art. 7(4)(e) substituted (27.2.2025) by The Retained EU Law (Revocation and Reform) Act 2023 (Consequential Amendments) Regulations 2025 (S.I. 2025/82), reg. 1(2), Sch. 13 para. 14(2)(a)